India’s steel imports fell sharply in the first five months of 2025 after the government imposed a 12% provisional safeguard duty to protect domestic producers from surging low-priced imports. The move appears effective in curbing inbound shipments and stabilizing the market for domestic steel manufacturers.
According to data from BigMint, total steel and stainless steel imports between January and May 2025 were 3.68 million tonnes, a significant decline of nearly 20% compared to 4.37 million tonnes during the same period in 2024. This drop has shifted India back toward being a net steel producer rather than a net importer.
🔎 Why Did Steel Imports Decline?
The safeguard duty, announced in mid-April 2025, sets a price floor between $675 and $964 per tonne for select steel categories. Imports below these thresholds now attract the 12% duty, deterring exporters like South Korea, China, and Vietnam from shipping low-priced steel into India.
Data shows:
- South Korea led steel exports to India with a 26% share during April-May 2025.
- China followed at 20%, Vietnam at 16%, and Japan at 10%.
- Finished flat products—HRC, pipes, tubes, galvanized and coated strips, sheets, and electrical steel—made up 62% of total imports.
- Stainless steel imports accounted for 4% of the overall volume.
📉 Key Market Impact
The drop in imports is already affecting market prices and margins:
✅ HRC imports fell 6% in May compared to March, reflecting the immediate effect of the duty.
✅ The price difference between domestic and imported HRC narrowed, with landed HRC from China now priced at ₹49,900/tonne, reflecting just a ₹600/tonne discount compared to ₹1,200/tonne earlier in Q4 FY25, according to JM Financial.
✅ Analysts estimate domestic steel producers like JSW Steel and Tata Steel could see margin expansion of up to ₹2,000/tonne in Q1 FY26 as they benefit from reduced low-priced competition.
JSW Steel MD and CEO Jayant Acharya noted that if import levels continue stabilizing, India could move back from being a net importer to a self-sufficient steel market. The current safeguard duty has significantly reduced imports from Free Trade Agreement (FTA) countries and China.
🏗️ Implications for Indian Steel Buyers
While some buyers previously turned to cheap imports amid falling global steel prices, the duty has removed the price advantage of imported steel. Combined with recent weakness in domestic prices, the incentive to import is now minimal.
BigMint reports that absent the safeguard duty, Indian buyers may have continued favoring imports as global steel prices fell. However, the new tariffs have effectively shielded the domestic market.
📈 Conclusion
The 12% provisional safeguard duty has already proven effective in:
✅ Reducing steel imports
✅ Narrowing domestic vs. import price gaps
✅ Improving margins for Indian producers
✅ Stabilizing the domestic steel market
This development supports India’s core industries, infrastructure growth, and Make in India objectives by ensuring fair competition and encouraging reliance on certified domestic suppliers.
Do you believe the safeguard duty will have a lasting impact on India’s steel market?
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